NFL Draft News & Analysis

2023 NFL Draft Order: The Chicago Bears have a decision to make at No. 1 overall, Detroit Lions pick twice in the top 20

Detroit, Michigan, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) is sacked by Detroit Lions linebacker James Houston (59) in the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

Now that the 2022 regular season has come to a close, PFF takes a look at how the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft is stacking up.

The Chicago Bears hold the No. 1 overall pick. Will they use it on a quarterback or defensive lineman, or will they trade back? Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are currently picking at No. 6 and No. 18, giving them a number of options as they look to pick up where they left off this year.

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Pick Team Record
1 Chicago Bears 3-14
2 Houston Texans 3-13-1
3 Arizona Cardinals 4-13
4 Indianapolis Colts 4-12-1
5 Seattle Seahawks (via DEN) 5-12
6 Detroit Lions (via LAR) 5-12
7 Las Vegas Raiders 6-11
8 Atlanta Falcons 7-10
9 Carolina Panthers 7-10
10 Philadelphia Eagles (via NO) 7-10
11 Tennessee Titans 7-10
12 Houston Texans (via CLV) 7-10
13 New York Jets 7-10
14 New England patriots 8-9
15 Green Bay Packers 8-9
16 Washington Commanders 8-8-1
17 Pittsburgh Steelers 9-8
18 Detroit Lions 9-8
Wild-card Round
19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9
20 Seattle Seahawks 9-8
21 Jacksonville Jaguars 9-8
22 Miami Dolphins 9-8
23 New York Giants 9-7-1
24 Baltimore Ravens 10-7
Divisional Round
25 Los Angeles Chargers 10-7
26 Dallas Cowboys 12-5
27 Cincinnati Bengals 12-4
28 Minnesota Vikings 13-4
Conference Championships
29 Denver Broncos (via SF) 13-4
30 Buffalo Bills 13-3
Super Bowl
31 Kansas City Chiefs 14-3
32 Philadelphia Eagles 14-3

** Miami has forfeited their first-round pick

• Jalen Carter to the Chicago Bears? Carter has put together a viable case for being the best defensive tackle prospect in the PFF era. Quinnen Williams is the current title holder coming out of Alabama in 2019, but there were some worries about his game that don’t apply to Carter. Williams was a one-year wonder who broke out in his redshirt sophomore season, while Carter had the highest pass-rushing grade on the vaunted 2021 Georgia defensive line as a sophomore. Williams didn’t have elite strength but made up for it with elite quicks, while Carter’s play strength is off the charts.

• Bryce Young to the Houston Texans? Young, quite obviously, ticks the performance box. He had the second-highest passing grade among Power Five quarterbacks last season, and after losing two top-50 picks at wide receiver, he earned the highest passing grade among Power Five quarterbacks this season. He’s the highest-graded passer in the class on out-of-structure plays and can make plays with his legs, as well, with 31 first downs on the ground the past two seasons.

What really separates Young, however, is his intangibles. He’s the highest-graded passer in the class over the past two seasons in one-score games that are in the fourth quarter or overtime. The Alabama quarterback has continually come up big when it matters most even when the supporting cast took a step back around him this past season.

• C.J. Stroud to the Las Vegas Raiders? Let’s get this out the way right now: Stroud is not Justin Fields as a prospect. Stroud’s game is far closer to a Tua Tagovailoa than his predecessor at Ohio State. Stroud is going to get the ball out on time and accurately to where it needs to go, as 33.6% of his attempts past the line of scrimmage were deemed perfectly placed — the highest rate in the draft class. He has a 75.8% adjusted completion percentage for his career and a 2.76-second average time to throw. Add to that his preponderance to avoid sacks, and you have a terrific pocket passing prospect. His 11.5% career pressure-to-sack conversion rate is half of what Fields’ was at Ohio State (23.6%).


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