NFL News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

OL/DL divisional round playoff matchups to target & avoid for prop bets and DFS

Arlington, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders (26) runs with the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

  • Taking advantage of the top offensive line: The Philadelphia Eagles have dominated the trenches all season, which should allow for multiple mismatches to target this week.
  • Avoiding the most expensive receiver in DFS: Ja’Marr Chase’s drop-off in numbers when his quarterback is under pressure makes him a risky bet against a Buffalo Bills team that can collapse the pocket.
  • The San Francisco 49ers‘ run blocking against the Dallas Cowboys’ run defense makes for an obvious choice: Christian McCaffrey should cruise to his 65.5-yard rushing total this week.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

The NFL playoffs offer plenty of opportunities for continuing the fantasy season, whether it’s through daily fantasy or betting purposes, and recognizing the mismatches in the trenches will provide a significant advantage for winning no matter the format. 

NOTE: Click here to see this week’s entire offensive line/defensive line matchup tool.


Offensive line matchups to target

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

The Eagles offensive line owns the highest pass-blocking grade in the league (85.5), allowing the second-lowest pressure rate (18.9%) and the lowest knockdown rate (3.2%). The Giants are tied for 14th among defensive line units in pass-rush grade (70.8) but land among the bottom half of the league in win rate (43.1%) and pressure rate (27.8%).

Yet another advantage for the Eagles as the Philadelphia offensive line ranks third in run-blocking grade this season (78.7). The Giants defensive line has managed just a 53.4 cumulative run defense grade which ranks 24th.

Key player(s) to target

TE Dallas Goedert (over 47.5 receiving yards): The Eagles should be able to take advantage of a significant mismatch in the trenches and at tight end. The Giants defense ranks inside the bottom five in first-down/touchdown rate to tight ends (52.8%), yards allowed per coverage snap (8.39), and plays of 15-plus yards allowed (23) to the tight end position. Goedert is one of the most heavily-targeted players at his position from a clean pocket (20.2%), which has led to a 1.90 yards per route run (ninth among tight ends).

WR A.J. Brown (over 69.5 receiving yards): Brown should also be in for a big day as a top-10 targeted wide receiver from a clean pocket (30.3%), which has led to 3.55 yards per route run when there is no pressure on the play (second among wide receivers) and a 91.2 receiving grade (second). Jalen Hurts should have enough time in the pocket to distribute the ball to his top options enough that both Brown and Goedert can clear their overs.

RB Miles Sanders ($5,700 in DFS): Sanders is one of the more reasonably priced running backs this weekend considering the mismatch in the trenches. Sanders has surpassed double-digit carries in all but one game this season and when given at least a yard before contact, he’s totaled 28 explosive plays (tied for sixth), 47 first downs (fifth), and nine rushing touchdowns (tied for second). Sanders should be able to make an impact in this game, similar to when the Eagles first met the Giants this season, when Hurts was in the lineup, posting a season-best 144 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.


San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

Subscribe to PFF+ to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Stop punting on life insurance. Get your free quote. Fabric by Gerber Life.
Sponsor

NFL Featured Tools

Subscriptions

Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS.

$9.99 / mo
$79.99 / yr